1. Factfulness

Figure 1. “Factfulness” by Hans Rosling, a Swedish professor of global health [1]

“Factfulness” is a book published posthumously in 2018 by Hans Rosling, a Swedish physician, statistician, and professor of global health. This book was one of the five books recommended by Bill Gates on his blog, GatesNotes, over the summer [2].

(Personally, I found this book very interesting, so if anyone is interested in learning more about it, I recommend reading the article below. Unfortunately, a Korean translation is not available yet.)

https://brunch.co.kr/@rickeygo/40

In this book, Hans Rosling points out ten misconceptions people commonly have and emphasizes a worldview based on statistics and facts, arguing that the world is continuously improving contrary to common beliefs. Among the many interesting contents of this book, this passage particularly caught my attention.

“If the UN forecasts for population growth are correct, and if incomes in Asia and Africa keep growing as now, then the center of gravity of the world market will shift over the next 20 years from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean.” [3]

“If the UN forecasts for population growth are correct, and if incomes in Asia and Africa continue to increase as they are now, it is expected that the center of gravity of the world market will shift from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean over the next 20 years.”

The prediction seems plausible, given that Asia alone accounts for nearly half of the world’s population. However, some might question Africa’s inclusion in this prediction. This is because the image that comes to mind when we think of Africa is usually far from optimism, development, and innovation.

According to a study conducted by the Save the Children Foundation in 2014, domestic media often depicted Africa’s negative aspects, such as unstable political structures, civil wars and riots, refugee camps crowded with impoverished people, and children suffering from famine and disease. Due to this, the study found that people of different age groups (elementary, middle, high school students, university students, and office workers) in Korea had similar images of Africa [4].

While these images are not entirely false, they are undeniably biased. The media tends to portray Africa as passive and politically and economically powerless. However, this is not the complete picture of Africa.

As mentioned in the quote from “Factfulness,” the African continent is dynamic, diverse, and brimming with potential for development. There are several reasons for this, the most fundamental being the population.

2. The Password of the World Population

Before diving into the main topic, let’s solve a simple problem.

Currently, the world population is approximately 7 billion. Given that one figure in the image below represents 1 billion people, which of the three charts (A, B, C) best represents the population distribution of the four continents (America, Africa, Europe, Asia)?

Figure 2. Question about the distribution of the world’s population. Which of these three charts best represents the world’s population distribution? [3]

The above image is a question about the world’s population distribution from the Gapminder Foundation. It is one of the questions Hans Rosling, the author of “Factfulness,” asked many people, including highly educated individuals, during his lectures worldwide. Surprisingly, even brilliant people from international financial institutions, and prestigious universities in the U.S. and Europe only got 30% correct. The correct answer is revealed in the following paragraph.

The answer is A. This might be relatively easier for those of us living in Asia. Specifically, today, 4.4 billion people live in Asia, 1.2 billion people in Africa, 0.7 billion people in Europe, and 1.2 billion people in the Americas. The following chart represents this distribution. Roughly 1 billion people live in the Americas, 1 billion in Europe, 1 billion in Africa, and 4 billion in Asia.

Table 1. World population distribution chart [5]

Thus, 1-1-1-4 is the PIN code representing the world’s population distribution today. However, just as we periodically change our PIN codes, the ratio of 1-1-1-4 is likely to change in the future. In the 2017 World Population Prospects, the UN predicted that the PIN code 1-1-1-4 would change to 1-1-4-5 by 2100, with the populations of Africa and Asia nearing 4 billion and 5 billion, respectively. If this comes true, it will be astonishing as 88% of the world’s population will be residing in Asia or Africa.

Considering that the combined populations of China and India already approach 3 billion, the projection for Asia’s population growth seems realistic. However, the projection that Africa’s population will approach 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4 billion by 2100 may be harder to grasp. This potential growth is rooted in Africa’s substantial young population.

3. The Youngest Continent

Africa is the “youngest continent.” While low birth rates and aging populations are global issues, Africa is going in the opposite direction. Over 60% of the African population is under 25 [6], a significantly higher figure compared to Europe’s 27% under 25. Even more fascinating is the expectation that this young population will continue to grow.

Figure 3. Chart from the Gates Foundation showing the population of young people. While the 0-24 population in other continents is declining, Africa’s young population is expected to increase. [6]

This is very encouraging because there is a close correlation between population growth and economic development. Although abundant human resources do not equate directly to economic success, no one denies that well-managed human resources can play a critical role in economic success.

Of course, an increase in the young population in a particular region is unfortunately somewhat related to a high presence of impoverished people. Poverty is one of the strongest correlates with high birth rates. Therefore, some are concerned about Africa’s growing young population, thinking it might lead to social instability, security threats, or an increase in illegal immigration.

Figure 4. Chart dividing the world population into four income levels based on daily earnings [7].

According to the chart, 1 billion people in the world live on less than $2 a day (extreme poverty). This group is the only one where the number of children exceeds the number of parents, and half a billion of these people live in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, this figure is expected to rise to 71% by 2050.

The lives of people in extreme poverty are not much different from the images we often see in the media—children walking barefoot to fetch water from mud puddles an hour away with plastic buckets, children dying without antibiotics, etc. These images highlight this group.

Although these pessimistic predictions exist, as noted by Bill Gates in the 2017 Gatekeepers Report, the population growth in Africa is undoubtedly a potential for explosive economic growth. The young population in this region, like any young people, are future social activists, leaders, and innovators.

If appropriate investments are made in human resources, it is believed that the economy of sub-Saharan Africa could improve by about 90% by 2050 [6]. Just as South Korea has developed over the past 50 years to reach the fourth income level we saw earlier, and as populations in India and China have moved from the first level to the second and third levels, the countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to follow a similar path.

4. The Overall Growth Potential of Africa’s Healthcare Industry

This is why we should focus on the healthcare industry in Africa. Effectively utilizing human resources cannot be achieved without proper investments in public health and national health. Studies comparing height as an indicator of health show that a 1 cm increase in height corresponds to a 3.4% increase in income [6]. Thus, investment in the healthcare industry is crucial for the growth of the African continent.

Additionally, while Africa lacks infrastructure and systems for healthcare delivery, this also presents an opportunity. China, during its development, skipped the credit card payment system and adopted a more convenient mobile payment system.

Likewise, in the process of supplementing insufficient healthcare delivery systems, African countries have the potential to implement more advanced systems that overcome the shortcomings seen in the systems adopted by us and Western countries using the latest technology. It is possible that innovation in the healthcare system could begin in Africa.

Based on this evidence, in the next article, we will examine some innovative healthcare companies in Africa. Through these cases, we will explore the healthcare challenges faced by the continent, the solutions being implemented, and the future that could unfold if these solutions are adopted in the long term.

References

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814

[2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Factfulness

[3] Rosling, Hans. Factfulness. Lindhardt Og Ringhof, 2018

[4] Kim Chun-Sik, Chae Kyung-Il, Jung Nak-Won. Studies on the Representation and Perception of Africa in Korean Media. Save the Children Foundation. https://www.sc.or.kr/upload/data/news0201_1410418074_1.pdf

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_by_population

[6] https://www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/report

[7] https://www.gapminder.org/topics/four-income-levels/